FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.13 – 68.44

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±11.6

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 17.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 23.78Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 31.02Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±11.6

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 18.96Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 20.93Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 28.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2673, 10577, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 10577, 2224

Auto

16.6 24%

Teleop

33.8 48%

Endgame

19.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4680, 9651, 7196

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4680, 9651, 7196

Auto

15.8 24%

Teleop

29.6 45%

Endgame

19.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.1pts

Blue projected score68.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 57–83
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 60.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.1Season APEX237.1

16.6Auto15.8

33.8Teleop29.6

19.5Endgame19.8

3Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	26	29
endgame	23	2
foul	0	0
total	69	51

Result

Final score

69 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Match videos

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