FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.76 – 67.44

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.6 ±11

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 12.1Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 32.58Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 21.08Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±11.6

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 15.68Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 22.25Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 29.51Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10607, 5577, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 5577, 4838

Auto

8.1 12%

Teleop

34.6 53%

Endgame

23.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2673, 10577, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 10577, 2224

Auto

15.5 24%

Teleop

31.6 48%

Endgame

18.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.8pts

Blue projected score67.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.7
Score range: 55–78
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 59.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.6Season APEX198.1

8.1Auto15.5

34.6Teleop31.6

23.2Endgame18.6

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	24
teleop	29	46
endgame	31	26
foul	0	5
total	80	101

Result

Final score

80 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Match videos

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