FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.2 – 42.69

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±13.3

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 2.37Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 14.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 22.21Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±12.2

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 5.62Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 24.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 12.61Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5225, 11423, 10577

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5225, 11423, 10577

Auto

7.7 20%

Teleop

19.0 50%

Endgame

11.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3632, 7196, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3632, 7196, 5065

Auto

12.7 30%

Teleop

13.7 32%

Endgame

15.9 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.2pts

Blue projected score42.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.5
Score range: 29–53
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 55.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.7Season APEX182.9

7.7Auto12.7

19Teleop13.7

11.1Endgame15.9

20Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	9
teleop	29	39
endgame	7	18
foul	0	0
total	48	66

Result

Final score

48 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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