FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

33.19 – 23.07

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 24.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.6 ±12.8

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 11.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 10.62Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 11.14Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±13.3

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 10.62Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 3.02Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 9.43Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3096, 1, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3096, 1, 3632

Auto

11.4 34%

Teleop

14.2 43%

Endgame

7.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5197, 7196, 3619

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5197, 7196, 3619

Auto

4.7 20%

Teleop

7.8 34%

Endgame

10.5 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.2pts

Blue projected score23.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.1
Score range: 17–39
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 31.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.6Season APEX206.3

11.4Auto4.7

14.2Teleop7.8

7.5Endgame10.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	12
teleop	2	32
endgame	4	11
foul	0	0
total	16	55

Result

Final score

16 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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