FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.01 – 41.73

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

11 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 3.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.8 ±13.9

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 10.53Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 4.83Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -0.35Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.6 ±15.8

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 26.39Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 10.53Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4854Trobots

Season APEX 19.9Event APEX 4.81Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5197, 4758, 6099

/ 100 compat

Projected

15 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5197, 4758, 6099

Auto

4.0 28%

Teleop

9.6 67%

Endgame

0.7 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11490, 4851, 4854

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11490, 4851, 4854

Auto

9.5 26%

Teleop

14.3 40%

Endgame

12.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15pts

Blue projected score41.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.7
Score range: 5–52
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 55 vs event baseline 55.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.8Season APEX111.6

4Auto9.5

9.6Teleop14.3

0.7Endgame12.1

58Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	17
teleop	2	14
endgame	0	13
foul	0	0
total	11	44

Result

Final score

11 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 3.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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