FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.65 – 36.81

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 17.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.5 ±13.3

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 47.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 6.4Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 6.51Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.3 ±11.7

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 6.04Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 5.78Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 24.99Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7692, 5642, 5532

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7692, 5642, 5532

Auto

22.0 36%

Teleop

27.3 44%

Endgame

12.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10607, 1, 5577

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 1, 5577

Auto

1.5 4%

Teleop

24.1 64%

Endgame

12.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.7pts

Blue projected score36.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 27–71
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 55.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.5Season APEX244.3

22Auto1.5

27.3Teleop24.1

12.5Endgame12.1

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	33	40
endgame	11	15
foul	0	0
total	64	68

Result

Final score

64 – 68

Prediction missed · off by 17.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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