FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.95 – 59.26

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 21.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.8 ±12.8

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 34.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 19.14Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8899CyberEagles

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 7.44Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.8 ±11

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 27.25Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 15.31Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 16.7Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9255, 2048, 8899

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9255, 2048, 8899

Auto

20.0 32%

Teleop

31.4 51%

Endgame

10.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2224, 4680, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 4680, 4838

Auto

13.4 24%

Teleop

26.6 47%

Endgame

16.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score59.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.7
Score range: 49–71
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 54.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.8Season APEX211.8

20Auto13.4

31.4Teleop26.6

10.6Endgame16.1

49Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	23
teleop	16	26
endgame	1	35
foul	0	0
total	42	84

Result

Final score

42 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 21.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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