FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.6 – 83.11

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 142.7 ±13.3

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 4.58Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 9.79Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 0.23Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.7 ±12.8

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 13.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 51.82Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 18.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1, 11461, 6616

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1, 11461, 6616

Auto

10.7 89%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

1.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11423, 123, 6096

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 123, 6096

Auto

23.4 29%

Teleop

41.9 51%

Endgame

16.5 20%

Strengths

· 123 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.67 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.6pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.5
Score range: 5–93
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 54.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

142.7Season APEX189.7

10.7Auto23.4

0Teleop41.9

1.3Endgame16.5

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	36
teleop	1	56
endgame	17	20
foul	0	0
total	30	112

Result

Final score

30 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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