FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.69 – 37.54

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±13.3

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 4.94Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 18.77Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 1.98Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±11

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 13.1Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 3.64Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 20.8Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5478, 2048, 5225

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 2048, 5225

Auto

15.8 58%

Teleop

9.7 36%

Endgame

1.7 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4680, 10607, 10577

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4680, 10607, 10577

Auto

6.8 20%

Teleop

20.0 58%

Endgame

7.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score25.7pts

Blue projected score37.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 16–48
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 54.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.8Season APEX182.9

15.8Auto6.8

9.7Teleop20

1.7Endgame7.4

93Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	9
teleop	23	36
endgame	6	23
foul	0	5
total	40	73

Result

Final score

40 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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