FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.64 – 68.56

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±12.8

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 20.64Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 4.94Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 7.06Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±12.1

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 45.52Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 15.73Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 7.31Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5577, 11461, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5577, 11461, 5197

Auto

0.5 2%

Teleop

14.1 47%

Endgame

15.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7692, 4838, 5756

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7692, 4838, 5756

Auto

17.0 25%

Teleop

31.1 46%

Endgame

20.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.6pts

Blue projected score68.6pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.9
Score range: 24–78
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 52.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX205.9

0.5Auto17

14.1Teleop31.1

15.6Endgame20

8Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	56	53
endgame	15	33
foul	0	0
total	92	106

Result

Final score

92 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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