FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.44 – 46.22

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146 ±12.8

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 30.28Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 8.17Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.99Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±13.3

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 18.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 20.95Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 6.8Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2224, 1, 3619

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2224, 1, 3619

Auto

12.7 20%

Teleop

33.5 53%

Endgame

16.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2048, 10577, 6532

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2048, 10577, 6532

Auto

12.1 26%

Teleop

26.6 56%

Endgame

8.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.4pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 37–70
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 52.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146Season APEX188.1

12.7Auto12.1

33.5Teleop26.6

16.9Endgame8.5

27Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	9	39
endgame	3	10
foul	0	0
total	26	63

Result

Final score

26 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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