FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

38.58 – 13.76

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±13.3

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 12.93Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 2.64Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 23.01Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.3 ±12.8

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -1.26Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 2.01Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 13.01Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11423, 5642, 7196

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 5642, 7196

Auto

10.3 26%

Teleop

17.5 44%

Endgame

12.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6099, 7865, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6099, 7865, 4680

Auto

3.8 36%

Teleop

11.0 100%

Endgame

-4.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.6pts

Blue projected score13.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.8
Score range: 4–49
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 52.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.1Season APEX162.3

10.3Auto3.8

17.5Teleop11

12Endgame-4.1

0Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	9
teleop	22	18
endgame	24	2
foul	0	0
total	54	29

Result

Final score

54 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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