FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

18.99 – 14.46

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

61 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±12.2

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 9.51Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 3.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 6.31Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.1 ±12.8

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 6.31Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 5.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 2.29Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4680, 6532, 2591

/ 100 compat

Projected

19 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4680, 6532, 2591

Auto

0.4 2%

Teleop

14.1 88%

Endgame

1.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4851, 3632, 6099

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4851, 3632, 6099

Auto

5.0 38%

Teleop

-1.0 0%

Endgame

9.0 69%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19pts

Blue projected score14.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.5
Score range: 5–28
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 78 vs event baseline 51.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX150.1

0.4Auto5

14.1Teleop-1

1.6Endgame9

81Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	10
teleop	47	6
endgame	7	1
foul	0	0
total	61	17

Result

Final score

61 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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