FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

34.35 – 24.07

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

57 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±11.6

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 3.76Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 16.38Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 14.21Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.2 ±13.3

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 4.96Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 4.71Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 14.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6616, 5577, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 5577, 4838

Auto

7.2 23%

Teleop

12.9 41%

Endgame

11.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7865, 5478, 11423

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7865, 5478, 11423

Auto

11.6 46%

Teleop

13.3 53%

Endgame

0.3 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.4pts

Blue projected score24.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 15–43
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 50.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.4Season APEX140.2

7.2Auto11.6

12.9Teleop13.3

11.1Endgame0.3

13Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	14
teleop	27	7
endgame	15	2
foul	0	0
total	57	23

Result

Final score

57 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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