FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

29.08 – 26.68

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±13.3

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 3.69Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 22.63Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 2.76Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.5 ±13.3

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 16.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 5.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8899CyberEagles

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 4.44Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4758, 10577, 5642

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4758, 10577, 5642

Auto

6.0 22%

Teleop

11.7 43%

Endgame

9.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2673, 5197, 8899

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 5197, 8899

Auto

6.4 25%

Teleop

12.7 50%

Endgame

6.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.1pts

Blue projected score26.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.4
Score range: 18–38
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 50.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.2Season APEX197.5

6Auto6.4

11.7Teleop12.7

9.2Endgame6.2

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	11	14
endgame	10	16
foul	0	0
total	39	44

Result

Final score

39 – 44

Prediction missed · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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