FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

49.02 – 45.61

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 4.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.8 ±12.2

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 27.56Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 11.38Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 10.08Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.7 ±12.8

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 20.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 2.65Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 22.42Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3619, 4680, 5756

/ 100 compat

Projected

49 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3619, 4680, 5756

Auto

10.0 22%

Teleop

21.2 47%

Endgame

13.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11490, 10607, 3096

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11490, 10607, 3096

Auto

11.7 26%

Teleop

20.2 45%

Endgame

12.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49pts

Blue projected score45.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.4
Score range: 37–58
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 49.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.8Season APEX122.7

10Auto11.7

21.2Teleop20.2

13.5Endgame12.7

80Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	19
teleop	31	28
endgame	11	5
foul	0	0
total	47	52

Result

Final score

47 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 4.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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