FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.49 – 22.74

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.8 ±13.3

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 1.25Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 5.17Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 6.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158 ±12.7

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 4.27Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 13Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 5.47Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6099, 5065, 2591

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6099, 5065, 2591

Auto

6.4 55%

Teleop

4.3 37%

Endgame

1.0 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5478, 4838, 11461

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 4838, 11461

Auto

6.2 26%

Teleop

9.6 41%

Endgame

7.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.5pts

Blue projected score22.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.2
Score range: 3–32
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 50.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.8Season APEX158

6.4Auto6.2

4.3Teleop9.6

1Endgame7.7

94Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	21
teleop	10	3
endgame	5	11
foul	0	0
total	26	35

Result

Final score

26 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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