FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.59 – 39.35

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.1 ±12.2

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 18.51Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 2.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 37.37Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328 ±12.2

7145RoboHawks

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 8.62Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 14.93Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 15.8Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10577, 5197, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10577, 5197, 123

Auto

19.8 35%

Teleop

28.3 50%

Endgame

8.6 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7145, 5577, 9651

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7145, 5577, 9651

Auto

10.4 27%

Teleop

13.3 34%

Endgame

15.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.6pts

Blue projected score39.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.2
Score range: 30–68
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 48.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.1Season APEX328

19.8Auto10.4

28.3Teleop13.3

8.6Endgame15.2

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	10
teleop	49	23
endgame	36	18
foul	0	0
total	100	51

Result

Final score

100 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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