FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.95 – 46.47

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.3 ±15.3

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 21.59Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4854Trobots

Season APEX 19.9Event APEX 10.08Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8899CyberEagles

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 6.28Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.6 ±12.7

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 42.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 1.26Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 2.61Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7196, 4854, 8899

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7196, 4854, 8899

Auto

8.1 22%

Teleop

18.5 51%

Endgame

9.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7692, 6532, 6616

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7692, 6532, 6616

Auto

16.7 38%

Teleop

22.1 50%

Endgame

5.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38pts

Blue projected score46.5pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.5
Score range: 29–55
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 49.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.3Season APEX192.6

8.1Auto16.7

18.5Teleop22.1

9.4Endgame5.7

52Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	19
teleop	5	43
endgame	9	8
foul	0	0
total	26	70

Result

Final score

26 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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