FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.34 – 60.79

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.8 ±13.9

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 11.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 15.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 10Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.2 ±12.1

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 22.12Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 20.24Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 18.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6532, 11423, 4851

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6532, 11423, 4851

Auto

5.5 15%

Teleop

22.4 60%

Endgame

9.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4838, 9651, 2673

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4838, 9651, 2673

Auto

17.1 29%

Teleop

24.2 41%

Endgame

17.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.3pts

Blue projected score60.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 26–72
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 37 vs event baseline 62.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.8Season APEX199.2

5.5Auto17.1

22.4Teleop24.2

9.7Endgame17.4

32Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	0
teleop	14	11
endgame	1	5
foul	0	5
total	16	21

Result

Final score

16 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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