FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.52 – 111.76

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±13.3

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 5.98Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 2.11Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8899CyberEagles

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 4.43Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.6 ±11.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 98.07Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 14.38Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX -0.69Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5065, 5478, 8899

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5065, 5478, 8899

Auto

9.0 67%

Teleop

0.2 1%

Endgame

4.3 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 9651, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3175, 9651, 5197

Auto

23.2 21%

Teleop

55.5 50%

Endgame

32.1 29%

Strengths

· 3175 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.52 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.5pts

Blue projected score111.8pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.2
Score range: 4–121
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 47.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.6Season APEX369.6

9Auto23.2

0.2Teleop55.5

4.3Endgame32.1

175Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	29
teleop	6	85
endgame	3	18
foul	0	0
total	31	132

Result

Final score

31 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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