FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.2 – 73.64

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146 ±13.9

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX -3.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 22.65Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 1.54Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174 ±13.3

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 12.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 38.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 22.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6532, 3619, 11461

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6532, 3619, 11461

Auto

4.0 18%

Teleop

16.2 71%

Endgame

2.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11423, 7692, 11490

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 7692, 11490

Auto

19.4 28%

Teleop

33.2 48%

Endgame

17.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.2pts

Blue projected score73.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.4
Score range: 12–82
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 47.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146Season APEX174

4Auto19.4

16.2Teleop33.2

2.5Endgame17.2

136Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	21
teleop	30	40
endgame	16	31
foul	0	0
total	55	92

Result

Final score

55 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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