FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

29.91 – 17.71

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

42 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.5 ±11.7

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 0.24Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 25.92Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 3.75Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.7 ±13.3

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 14.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 1.86Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 1.67Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10607, 2224, 6099

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 2224, 6099

Auto

10.5 33%

Teleop

12.9 41%

Endgame

8.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4851, 6616, 5225

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4851, 6616, 5225

Auto

9.4 72%

Teleop

0.2 2%

Endgame

3.5 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.9pts

Blue projected score17.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 9–39
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 58 vs event baseline 47.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.5Season APEX179.7

10.5Auto9.4

12.9Teleop0.2

8.1Endgame3.5

83Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	8
teleop	33	4
endgame	0	4
foul	0	0
total	42	16

Result

Final score

42 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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