FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.37 – 110.88

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.8 ±12.7

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 0.41Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 15.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 8.64Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.3 ±11.7

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX -1.56Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 11.45Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 100.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6616, 11423, 2591

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 11423, 2591

Auto

14.3 60%

Teleop

7.6 32%

Endgame

1.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5642, 5756, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5642, 5756, 3175

Auto

23.9 21%

Teleop

54.8 49%

Endgame

32.5 29%

Strengths

· 3175 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.6 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.4pts

Blue projected score110.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.5
Score range: 16–119
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 46.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.8Season APEX318.3

14.3Auto23.9

7.6Teleop54.8

1.8Endgame32.5

4Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	8	53
endgame	6	35
foul	5	0
total	32	107

Result

Final score

32 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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