FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.18 – 19.24

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.9 ±13.3

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 13.4Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 23.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 6.57Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.3 ±12.7

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 10.26Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 6.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 2.75Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4838, 11490, 1

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4838, 11490, 1

Auto

5.4 14%

Teleop

17.2 43%

Endgame

17.1 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4758, 2673, 5478

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4758, 2673, 5478

Auto

6.6 43%

Teleop

4.5 29%

Endgame

4.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.2pts

Blue projected score19.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.9
Score range: 11–51
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 45.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.9Season APEX155.3

5.4Auto6.6

17.2Teleop4.5

17.1Endgame4.4

48Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	9
teleop	28	10
endgame	14	6
foul	0	0
total	58	25

Result

Final score

58 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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