FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.22 – 41.09

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 1.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±11

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 21.24Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 12.38Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 32.6Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.9 ±12.8

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 2.5Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 14.15Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 24.44Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7196, 4680, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7196, 4680, 123

Auto

22.3 36%

Teleop

25.0 40%

Endgame

14.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5532, 5577, 3619

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5532, 5577, 3619

Auto

6.3 16%

Teleop

25.5 64%

Endgame

8.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.2pts

Blue projected score41.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.1
Score range: 33–74
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 45.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272Season APEX259.9

22.3Auto6.3

25Teleop25.5

14.5Endgame8.3

68Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	11
teleop	34	19
endgame	14	12
foul	5	0
total	68	42

Result

Final score

68 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 1.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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