FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

42.04 – 14.18

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

47 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±13.9

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 10.82Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 12.04Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 19.18Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.5 ±12.8

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 5.74Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7145RoboHawks

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 8.3Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 0.14Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2048, 4851, 3096

/ 100 compat

Projected

42 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2048, 4851, 3096

Auto

10.3 23%

Teleop

19.0 42%

Endgame

16.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3632, 7145, 11461

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3632, 7145, 11461

Auto

15.5 90%

Teleop

-9.7 0%

Endgame

11.4 66%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42pts

Blue projected score14.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.9
Score range: 6–50
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 77 vs event baseline 45.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.5Season APEX188.5

10.3Auto15.5

19Teleop-9.7

16.3Endgame11.4

0Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	7
teleop	26	8
endgame	1	15
foul	5	0
total	47	30

Result

Final score

47 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 10.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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