FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

41.1 – 29.16

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

37 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±12.2

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 14.29Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 33.31Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX -6.5Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.3 ±13.9

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 6.72Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 24.06Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX -1.62Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4838, 123, 6532

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4838, 123, 6532

Auto

12.8 32%

Teleop

20.9 52%

Endgame

6.6 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5065, 3619, 5642

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5065, 3619, 5642

Auto

12.2 41%

Teleop

8.7 29%

Endgame

9.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score29.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.9
Score range: 21–49
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 46.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX122.3

12.8Auto12.2

20.9Teleop8.7

6.6Endgame9

49Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	11
teleop	20	22
endgame	4	1
foul	0	0
total	37	34

Result

Final score

37 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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