FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.95 – 76.17

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

45 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±12.8

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 6.65Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 48.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 8.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±11.7

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 37.58Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 20.64Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 17.95Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1, 8352, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

64 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1, 8352, 5197

Auto

16.7 26%

Teleop

32.8 51%

Endgame

14.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9255, 3096, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9255, 3096, 4680

Auto

22.1 30%

Teleop

37.5 50%

Endgame

14.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64pts

Blue projected score76.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 53–87
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 62.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.6Season APEX223.8

16.7Auto22.1

32.8Teleop37.5

14.6Endgame14.8

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	14
teleop	19	20
endgame	14	6
foul	0	0
total	45	40

Result

Final score

45 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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