FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.59 – 50.37

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.1 ±13.9

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX 21.64Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 11.5Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 2.45Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.5 ±15.3

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX 11.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 17.58Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4854Trobots

Season APEX 19.9Event APEX 21.72Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3096, 11423, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3096, 11423, 5197

Auto

12.9 36%

Teleop

19.9 55%

Endgame

3.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2591, 2048, 4854

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2591, 2048, 4854

Auto

7.5 15%

Teleop

31.2 63%

Endgame

10.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score50.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.8
Score range: 28–58
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 43.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.1Season APEX144.5

12.9Auto7.5

19.9Teleop31.2

3.3Endgame10.6

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	16
teleop	21	8
endgame	8	4
foul	0	0
total	46	28

Result

Final score

46 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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