FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

10.99 – 36.4

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.9 ±12.2

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX -3.72Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 13.63Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 1.08Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.3 ±11.6

9255Botmasterz

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 31.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 3.42Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 1.55Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4838, 3619, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

11 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4838, 3619, 3632

Auto

2.9 29%

Teleop

4.2 42%

Endgame

2.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9255, 6616, 5478

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9255, 6616, 5478

Auto

20.0 55%

Teleop

14.8 41%

Endgame

1.3 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score11pts

Blue projected score36.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.4
Score range: 3–44
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 114 vs event baseline 42.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.9Season APEX204.3

2.9Auto20

4.2Teleop14.8

2.9Endgame1.3

84Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	32	14
endgame	28	4
foul	0	0
total	78	36

Result

Final score

78 – 36

Prediction missed · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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