FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

53.34 – 22.1

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206 ±13.3

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 2.93Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 41.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7145RoboHawks

Season APEX 79.3Event APEX 8.57Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.7 ±12.2

4758RoboBlazers

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX -1.32Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 4.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 19.37Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7865, 7692, 7145

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7865, 7692, 7145

Auto

11.4 22%

Teleop

26.4 51%

Endgame

13.7 27%

Strengths

· 7692 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4758, 5756, 123

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4758, 5756, 123

Auto

10.3 46%

Teleop

4.3 19%

Endgame

7.6 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.3pts

Blue projected score22.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.2
Score range: 15–60
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 41.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206Season APEX212.7

11.4Auto10.3

26.4Teleop4.3

13.7Endgame7.6

15Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	31
teleop	35	37
endgame	13	21
foul	0	5
total	68	94

Result

Final score

68 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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