FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

26.07 – 5.94

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 102.3 ±13.9

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 14.52Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 19.99Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX -8.44Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.2 ±12.8

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX -7.29Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 12.58Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 0.65Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11490, 6096, 5642

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11490, 6096, 5642

Auto

5.9 23%

Teleop

15.0 58%

Endgame

5.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6532, 2224, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6532, 2224, 5065

Auto

8.5 100%

Teleop

-1.2 0%

Endgame

0.9 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.1pts

Blue projected score5.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.1
Score range: -1–33
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 41.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

102.3Season APEX156.2

5.9Auto8.5

15Teleop-1.2

5Endgame0.9

9Consistency148

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	7	19
endgame	11	11
foul	5	0
total	37	47

Result

Final score

37 – 47

Prediction missed · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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