FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.54 – 35.03

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±11.7

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 2.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -7.54Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 29.42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±13.9

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 8.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 15.93Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 10.29Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11423, 3632, 8352

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11423, 3632, 8352

Auto

10.3 44%

Teleop

11.7 50%

Endgame

1.2 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5197, 4851, 5532

/ 100 compat

Projected

35 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5197, 4851, 5532

Auto

8.7 23%

Teleop

14.7 39%

Endgame

14.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.5pts

Blue projected score35pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 18–42
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 89 vs event baseline 41.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX162.4

10.3Auto8.7

11.7Teleop14.7

1.2Endgame14.7

191Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	6
teleop	24	5
endgame	20	3
foul	0	5
total	70	19

Result

Final score

70 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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