FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.31 – 14.49

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±12.1

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 10.5Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX -0.25Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -0.94Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±12.8

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 20.9Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -4.83Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -1.58Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9651, 6616, 10577

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9651, 6616, 10577

Auto

11.9 100%

Teleop

-10.9 0%

Endgame

4.4 81%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2048, 11461, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2048, 11461, 4680

Auto

8.4 92%

Teleop

-1.7 0%

Endgame

2.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.3pts

Blue projected score14.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 2–21
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 41.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.1Season APEX209.7

11.9Auto8.4

-10.9Teleop-1.7

4.4Endgame2.4

107Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	16
teleop	19	12
endgame	7	6
foul	0	0
total	46	34

Result

Final score

46 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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