FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.17 – 38.49

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.4 ±12.2

2673Tenacious Technicians

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX -1.75Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 6.05Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 9.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±11.6

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -0.49Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 14.69Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 24.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2673, 11490, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2673, 11490, 2224

Auto

-0.1 0%

Teleop

6.8 49%

Endgame

7.3 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2591, 123, 7692

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2591, 123, 7692

Auto

10.0 26%

Teleop

21.6 55%

Endgame

7.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.2pts

Blue projected score38.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.3
Score range: 7–45
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 36.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.4Season APEX237.1

-0.1Auto10

6.8Teleop21.6

7.3Endgame7.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	26	51
endgame	21	20
foul	0	0
total	60	97

Result

Final score

60 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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