FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 2.48

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139 ±13.9

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -4.91Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX -1Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11423Team IIA

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -2.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.8 ±12.8

8352CODE Gold

Season APEX 105.2Event APEX 15.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8899CyberEagles

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX -4.96Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX -8.34Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11461, 5532, 11423

/ 100 compat

Projected

-8.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11461, 5532, 11423

Auto

2.4 0%

Teleop

-3.1 55%

Endgame

-4.9 88%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8352, 8899, 5642

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8352, 8899, 5642

Auto

4.6 88%

Teleop

-2.1 0%

Endgame

2.7 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-8.9pts

Blue projected score2.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.5
Score range: -7–9
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 38.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139Season APEX197.8

2.4Auto4.6

-3.1Teleop-2.1

-4.9Endgame2.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	11
teleop	8	22
endgame	2	16
foul	0	0
total	22	49

Result

Final score

22 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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