FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

23.4 – 0

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.9 ±14.4

4854Trobots

Season APEX 19.9Event APEX 4.76Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 10.7Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4680AzTech Eagles

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 7.94Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.1 ±13.3

3096The Village Bulldogs

Season APEX 46Event APEX -5.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10577TARMINATORS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -7.39Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX -1.84Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4854, 6616, 4680

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4854, 6616, 4680

Auto

12.7 59%

Teleop

2.8 13%

Endgame

6.0 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3096, 10577, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

-14.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3096, 10577, 5065

Auto

-0.6 4%

Teleop

-11.6 87%

Endgame

-1.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23.4pts

Blue projected score-14.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: -7–30
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 38.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.9Season APEX150.1

12.7Auto-0.6

2.8Teleop-11.6

6Endgame-1.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	4	15
endgame	0	10
foul	15	0
total	34	40

Result

Final score

34 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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