FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

33.77 – 24.94

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.9 ±11.6

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 14.1Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7196Tech Tigers

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 10.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 8.82Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.4 ±13.3

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 6.77Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 11.04Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1The Juggernauts

Season APEX 28.8Event APEX 7.13Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5478, 7196, 10607

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 7196, 10607

Auto

13.7 39%

Teleop

14.4 41%

Endgame

7.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9651, 4851, 1

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9651, 4851, 1

Auto

6.8 30%

Teleop

7.2 32%

Endgame

8.6 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.8pts

Blue projected score24.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 19–40
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 33.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.9Season APEX154.4

13.7Auto6.8

14.4Teleop7.2

7.2Endgame8.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	7
teleop	20	14
endgame	5	21
foul	0	0
total	38	42

Result

Final score

38 – 42

Prediction missed · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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