FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

42.85 – 29.16

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.3 ±12.8

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 19.8Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 7.57Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3619BLACKHAWKS

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.48Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.5 ±12.7

2591RedTails

Season APEX 46.8Event APEX -5.1Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 21.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4838Under Currents

Season APEX 62.1Event APEX 12.45Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 123, 5225, 3619

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 123, 5225, 3619

Auto

15.8 36%

Teleop

19.8 46%

Endgame

7.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2591, 5197, 4838

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2591, 5197, 4838

Auto

3.6 13%

Teleop

19.8 72%

Endgame

4.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.9pts

Blue projected score29.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 23–49
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 33.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.3Season APEX182.5

15.8Auto3.6

19.8Teleop19.8

7.8Endgame4.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	0
teleop	28	10
endgame	7	5
foul	0	0
total	55	15

Result

Final score

55 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 13.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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