FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.86 – 37.47

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

10 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.2 ±13.9

6532TechnoPaths

Season APEX 46.6Event APEX 3.54Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6099Knight Riders

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -1.67Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11490The Southwest Sparks

Season APEX 38Event APEX 2.99Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.1 ±12.4

2048The Pink Panthers

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 2.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7865HODAbotics

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 5.49Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 29.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6532, 6099, 11490

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6532, 6099, 11490

Auto

-4.2 0%

Teleop

6.7 100%

Endgame

1.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2048, 7865, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2048, 7865, 3175

Auto

11.2 30%

Teleop

18.4 49%

Endgame

7.8 21%

Strengths

· 3175 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score4.9pts

Blue projected score37.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.6
Score range: -1–43
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 30.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.2Season APEX345.1

-4.2Auto11.2

6.7Teleop18.4

1.6Endgame7.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	26
teleop	9	61
endgame	1	36
foul	0	0
total	10	123

Result

Final score

10 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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