FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

20.12 – 15.35

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

13 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 11.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.5 ±13.9

8899CyberEagles

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 5.8Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11461SW Phoenix

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 5.14Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6096UPSM Cobrots

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 9.18Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.6 ±14.4

4854Trobots

Season APEX 19.9Event APEX 0.37Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 9.18Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2224RoboPhoenix

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 5.8Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8899, 11461, 6096

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8899, 11461, 6096

Auto

2.2 11%

Teleop

14.4 72%

Endgame

3.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4854, 5478, 2224

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4854, 5478, 2224

Auto

0.6 4%

Teleop

11.6 77%

Endgame

2.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.1pts

Blue projected score15.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.8
Score range: 9–26
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 44 vs event baseline 30.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.5Season APEX133.6

2.2Auto0.6

14.4Teleop11.6

3.3Endgame2.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	15
teleop	9	7
endgame	0	9
foul	0	0
total	13	31

Result

Final score

13 – 31

Prediction missed · off by 11.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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