FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

12.32 – 9.25

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 11.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.3 ±13.3

5225The Shambotz

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 6.57Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5642Mumford Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 33.9Event APEX 1.14Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 4.61Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.8 ±12.2

5756REC'in Crew

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -0.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5577Kinematic Wolves

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 4.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4851JungleBots

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 5.61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5225, 5642, 9651

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5225, 5642, 9651

Auto

1.3 12%

Teleop

6.4 61%

Endgame

2.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5756, 5577, 4851

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5756, 5577, 4851

Auto

0.5 6%

Teleop

3.2 36%

Endgame

5.3 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.3pts

Blue projected score9.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.1
Score range: 3–18
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 44 vs event baseline 31.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.3Season APEX290.8

1.3Auto0.5

6.4Teleop3.2

2.8Endgame5.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	0
teleop	1	6
endgame	0	19
foul	0	0
total	19	25

Result

Final score

19 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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