FIM District Wayne State Event presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.42 – 161.78

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180 ±11

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 12.73Rank 29Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7692Beach Bums 7692

Season APEX 83.5Event APEX 47.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3632D-Techs

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 11.5Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.4 ±10.5

6616Mechanical Pumas

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX -0.1Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

123Team - Cosmos

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 54.94Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 106.94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10607, 7692, 3632

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 7692, 3632

Auto

18.4 26%

Teleop

32.2 45%

Endgame

20.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6616, 123, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6616, 123, 3175

Auto

46.3 29%

Teleop

81.6 51%

Endgame

30.8 19%

Strengths

· 3175 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.4pts

Blue projected score161.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.4
Score range: 60–173
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 62.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180Season APEX393.4

18.4Auto46.3

32.2Teleop81.6

20.8Endgame30.8

36Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	36
teleop	16	42
endgame	7	24
foul	0	0
total	39	102

Result

Final score

39 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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