Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
485.04 – 442.63
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
456 – 543
Prediction missed · off by 64.7 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 106.95Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7166, 8280, 2337
73
/ 100 compatProjected
485 pts
~1.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
101.4 22%
Teleop
248.9 53%
Endgame
117.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7197, 3538, 5460
65
/ 100 compatProjected
442.6 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460
Auto
83.1 19%
Teleop
231.2 53%
Endgame
122.0 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 0.8
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score485pts
Blue projected score442.6pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample14alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 42.4
- Score range
- 347–581
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
701.4Season APEX789.2
101.4Auto83.1
248.9Teleop231.2
117.5Endgame122
255Consistency194
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 53 | 129 |
| teleop | 253 | 296 |
| endgame | 115 | 108 |
| foul | 35 | 10 |
| total | 456 | 543 |
Result
Final score
456 – 543
Prediction missed · off by 64.7 pts
Match videos
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