Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
442.63 – 464.76
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
532 – 511
Prediction missed · off by 67.8 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3
Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 106.95Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 154.92Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 154.92Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 154.92Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7197, 3538, 5460
65
/ 100 compatProjected
442.6 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460
Auto
83.1 19%
Teleop
231.2 53%
Endgame
122.0 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2586, 2767, 6090
65
/ 100 compatProjected
464.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2586, 2767, 6090
Auto
133.9 30%
Teleop
199.9 45%
Endgame
112.6 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.2
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score442.6pts
Blue projected score464.8pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample14alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -22.1
- Score range
- 347–561
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
789.2Season APEX788.6
83.1Auto133.9
231.2Teleop199.9
122Endgame112.6
194Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 130 | 130 |
| teleop | 285 | 197 |
| endgame | 117 | 149 |
| foul | 0 | 35 |
| total | 532 | 511 |
Result
Final score
532 – 511
Prediction missed · off by 67.8 pts
Match videos
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