Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
636 – 485.04
87%13%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
774 – 528
Prediction correct · off by 90.5 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8
Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3668, 27, 7769
83
/ 100 compatProjected
636 pts
~1.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3668, 27, 7769
Auto
163.7 26%
Teleop
314.6 50%
Endgame
156.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7166, 8280, 2337
73
/ 100 compatProjected
485 pts
~0.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
101.4 22%
Teleop
248.9 53%
Endgame
117.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.33
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score636pts
Blue projected score485pts
Red win probability87%
Event bonus sample14alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 151
- Score range
- 389–732
- Upset likelihood
- 13%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
926Season APEX701.4
163.7Auto101.4
314.6Teleop248.9
156.5Endgame117.5
216Consistency255
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 193 | 124 |
| teleop | 370 | 242 |
| endgame | 206 | 147 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 774 | 528 |
Result
Final score
774 – 528
Prediction correct · off by 90.5 pts
Match videos
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