Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
464.76 – 485.04
44%56%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
496 – 552
Prediction correct · off by 49.1 points
Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 788.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 214.5Event APEX 154.92Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 154.92Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 298.7Event APEX 154.92Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 701.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 180.4Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 161.68Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2586, 2767, 6090
65
/ 100 compatProjected
464.8 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 2586, 2767, 6090
Auto
133.9 30%
Teleop
199.9 45%
Endgame
112.6 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7166, 8280, 2337
73
/ 100 compatProjected
485 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 7166, 8280, 2337
Auto
101.4 22%
Teleop
248.9 53%
Endgame
117.5 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Low variance, consistent output
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 2%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.19
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score464.8pts
Blue projected score485pts
Red win probability44%
Event bonus sample14alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -20.3
- Score range
- 369–581
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
788.6Season APEX701.4
133.9Auto101.4
199.9Teleop248.9
112.6Endgame117.5
0Consistency255
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 160 | 144 |
| teleop | 236 | 293 |
| endgame | 95 | 110 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 496 | 552 |
Result
Final score
496 – 552
Prediction correct · off by 49.1 pts
Match videos
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