Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

636 – 396.56

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

670 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 212Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.2 ±8.7

4327Q Branch

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 60.88Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 167.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

636 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

163.7 26%

Teleop

314.6 50%

Endgame

156.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4327, 3538, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.6 pts

~0.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4327, 3538, 5460

Auto

46.6 12%

Teleop

214.8 56%

Endgame

122.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score636pts

Blue projected score396.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample14alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 239.4
Score range: 301–732
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1097 vs event baseline 531.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX779.2

163.7Auto46.6

314.6Teleop214.8

156.5Endgame122.6

216Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	178	44
teleop	366	233
endgame	126	135
foul	0	15
total	670	427

Result

Final score

670 – 427

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Match videos

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