Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

656.52 – 438.53

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

571 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 926 ±8.8

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 218.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 218.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 218.84Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 789.2 ±9.3

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 104.75Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

3538RoboJackets

A+

Season APEX 295.7Event APEX 166.89Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 166.89Rank -Record -Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3668, 27, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

656.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3668, 27, 7769

Auto

172.7 26%

Teleop

333.5 51%

Endgame

148.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7197, 3538, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.5 pts

~0.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7197, 3538, 5460

Auto

89.6 21%

Teleop

233.0 54%

Endgame

107.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score656.5pts

Blue projected score438.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample14alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 218
Score range: 343–753
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 534.8.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

926Season APEX789.2

172.7Auto89.6

333.5Teleop233

148.7Endgame107.6

234Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	135	62
teleop	255	225
endgame	181	169
foul	0	0
total	571	456

Result

Final score

571 – 456

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.